Nov 10, 2011

Yeah. So, nevermind.

So I was wrong about Rick Perry. The guy is not going to "run the table," clearly. Run off the table, maybe.

I was wrong.

1. I thought he was a better politician. I based this on Texas journalists' big explanatory pieces when he got on the national stage, & how well played that series of entry moves was. He bumped Bachmann out of the light & made himself the obvious anti-Romney, got himself hailed like it was a homecoming & it was all pretty slick. They said he was coachable, had solid staff & funding, & that he knew how to woo. I thought, too, that a lot of the stupidity that was following Perry like stink clouds follow Peanuts' Pig-Pen could be used & would be used (a la Palin, a la Nixon) to stoke the bases' resentments, & to fake out (a la G.W. Bush) liberal critics & journalists.

2. I really underestimated how unforgiving conservative GOPers would be about a couple of unorthodoxies like immigration reform & state-run vaccination programs. It'd been my impression that the ideas of the conservative base of the Republican Party were frustratingly malleable, rather than too rigid, based on presuppositions about good guys and bad guys rather than actually ideas.



3. If I were actually into political commentary, No. 3 would be, "what's the third one there, let's see, uh ... I can't. The third one, I can't. Sorry. Oops." But seriously, I can't. Even what I just did makes loathe myself, which is why I should play this pundit game even less than I do.

The real number 3 is, I didn't expect primary debates to be particularly important. Not game-changers, anyway. I guess I thought the race would be more or less more or less static between everyone who would be running getting in the race and the first ballots cast. I didn't calculate debates at all, in what I said, but just looked at Perry's profile/image & matched it up w/ those of early primary states. I don't remember an early race being this tumultuous before, this volatile. I mean, the early days of the Democratic primary in the '92 race, but that was mostly at the stage of will he/won't he run, I think.

Candidates, this season, are like market bubbles.

None of this is particularly important. Or at all. Very little rides on my Republican-prediction abilities. I did want to make note of my wrongness, though.